2019年(nian)1月(yue)3日,中國(guo)社會(hui)科(ke)學院人口與(yu)(yu)勞(lao)動(dong)經濟(ji)研究所與(yu)(yu)社會(hui)科(ke)學文獻出版(ban)社共同舉辦的《人口與(yu)(yu)勞(lao)動(dong)綠(lv)皮書:中國(guo)人口與(yu)(yu)勞(lao)動(dong)問題報告No.19》發布(bu)會(hui)在北(bei)京舉行。
2018年(nian)是改(gai)(gai)革開(kai)放40周年(nian)。在經濟改(gai)(gai)革和(he)對外開(kai)放的(de)(de)推動(dong)下,中國(guo)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)發(fa)展取(qu)得了歷史性(xing)的(de)(de)巨(ju)大進步,完成了人(ren)(ren)口(kou)轉(zhuan)變,人(ren)(ren)口(kou)質量和(he)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)城(cheng)鎮化(hua)水平(ping)大幅度(du)提高(gao),人(ren)(ren)口(kou)流動(dong)高(gao)度(du)活躍,為(wei)社(she)會經濟發(fa)展貢獻(xian)了豐(feng)厚的(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)紅利。進入21世紀以來(lai),由于“劉易斯轉(zhuan)折點”的(de)(de)出(chu)現(xian),當前勞(lao)動(dong)力增(zeng)(zeng)長處于停滯;勞(lao)動(dong)年(nian)齡人(ren)(ren)口(kou)加(jia)速減(jian)少和(he)老年(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)加(jia)速增(zeng)(zeng)長,導致人(ren)(ren)口(kou)撫養比將會持(chi)續提高(gao);以老年(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)長為(wei)主導力量的(de)(de)老齡化(hua)趨(qu)勢日(ri)益加(jia)劇。這些趨(qu)勢性(xing)的(de)(de)轉(zhuan)變不(bu)僅直接改(gai)(gai)變了人(ren)(ren)口(kou)發(fa)展面(mian)臨的(de)(de)形勢和(he)任(ren)務,同時也給社(she)會經濟發(fa)展帶來(lai)巨(ju)大而深(shen)遠的(de)(de)影響。
2019年(nian)是新中國(guo)成(cheng)立70周年(nian),也是實(shi)現(xian)全面建成(cheng)小康社(she)會(hui)(hui)目標的(de)關鍵一(yi)年(nian)。就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)形勢(shi)穩(wen)定至關重要,就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)工作(zuo)(zuo)應該重點關注以(yi)下(xia)幾個方面問題:一(yi)是妥善應對過(guo)去幾年(nian)化解(jie)產(chan)能過(guo)剩和(he)地方債務風險過(guo)程中積累的(de)潛在就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)影響,積極(ji)做(zuo)好就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)轉(zhuan)移(yi)、技(ji)能培訓和(he)社(she)會(hui)(hui)保障(zhang)相關工作(zuo)(zuo);二是監測貧(pin)(pin)困人(ren)(ren)口(kou)和(he)脫貧(pin)(pin)家庭的(de)就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)狀況,繼續推進就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)扶貧(pin)(pin)工作(zuo)(zuo),增強脫貧(pin)(pin)攻堅成(cheng)效;三是關注人(ren)(ren)口(kou)凈流出地區(qu)、資源枯竭地區(qu)等就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)形勢(shi),防止出現(xian)局部(bu)性大規模失業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye);四是繼續做(zuo)好應屆高校畢業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)生、退伍(wu)軍人(ren)(ren)等重點群體的(de)就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)工作(zuo)(zuo),同時關注退休返(fan)聘或(huo)再(zai)就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)人(ren)(ren)員、農村遷移(yi)老年(nian)人(ren)(ren)再(zai)就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)等新現(xian)象,落實(shi)相關就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)政策。
為(wei)應對數(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)經(jing)濟(ji)對就(jiu)(jiu)業市場和就(jiu)(jiu)業制度所帶來(lai)的(de)各項挑戰,我國要做好(hao)數(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)經(jing)濟(ji)大環境下(xia)就(jiu)(jiu)業服(fu)(fu)務(wu)的(de)頂層設計,推動(dong)從(cong)工業經(jing)濟(ji)的(de)“千(qian)人(ren)(ren)一(yi)面”到數(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)經(jing)濟(ji)下(xia)“千(qian)人(ren)(ren)千(qian)面”的(de)轉變(bian),實現人(ren)(ren)口紅(hong)利向人(ren)(ren)才紅(hong)利的(de)跨(kua)越發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)。為(wei)了(le)激發(fa)(fa)數(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)經(jing)濟(ji)的(de)全(quan)部潛力,政(zheng)府要完善就(jiu)(jiu)業相關(guan)法律和社會(hui)保障制度,提高制度和政(zheng)策(ce)的(de)靈活性(xing)與普(pu)惠性(xing);要重視數(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)人(ren)(ren)才培(pei)養、數(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)技(ji)能(neng)培(pei)訓,加(jia)強數(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)人(ren)(ren)力資源(yuan)開發(fa)(fa);要構建全(quan)國統一(yi)的(de)就(jiu)(jiu)業信息服(fu)(fu)務(wu)網(wang)絡,優化就(jiu)(jiu)業服(fu)(fu)務(wu)體系;要努力發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)新產(chan)業、新業態(tai),充分發(fa)(fa)掘數(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)經(jing)濟(ji)的(de)就(jiu)(jiu)業創造能(neng)力。
中國人口發展面臨的六大趨勢性重大轉折
進入21世紀以來,中國人(ren)口已經出現了幾個(ge)重大轉折,在未來一個(ge)時(shi)期(qi)內還將出現新的(de)(de)轉折性(xing)變(bian)化。這些趨勢性(xing)的(de)(de)轉變(bian)不僅直(zhi)接改變(bian)了人(ren)口發(fa)展(zhan)面臨的(de)(de)形勢和任務(wu),同(tong)時(shi)也給社會(hui)經濟發(fa)展(zhan)帶來巨大而深遠的(de)(de)影響。
(一)勞動力變化趨勢的轉折
在(zai)(zai)過去(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)一個時(shi)期(qi)里,中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)歷了(le)(le)(le)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)快速增長,勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)無限供(gong)給(gei)(gei)曾經(jing)(jing)是中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)高速發(fa)展的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重要條件,也曾經(jing)(jing)是中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)比較優勢的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重要基礎(chu)。進入21世紀后(hou),勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)供(gong)給(gei)(gei)發(fa)生了(le)(le)(le)重大(da)變化。首(shou)先是“劉(liu)易斯轉折點”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)出現:2003年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)出現的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“民(min)工(gong)荒(huang)”標(biao)志著(zhu)(zhu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)無限供(gong)給(gei)(gei)時(shi)代(dai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)結束(蔡昉(fang),2008),都(dou)陽(yang)和(he)王美艷(2010)利用2005年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1%人(ren)(ren)口(kou)抽樣調查數(shu)據(ju),并在(zai)(zai)考慮農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)結構(gou)和(he)個體(ti)特征的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情況(kuang)下(xia)對(dui)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村剩(sheng)(sheng)余(yu)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)數(shu)量進行了(le)(le)(le)估計,他(ta)們的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研究(jiu)結果顯(xian)示,在(zai)(zai)現有的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)市(shi)場狀況(kuang)和(he)制度環境下(xia),農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)可(ke)供(gong)轉移的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)只剩(sheng)(sheng)下(xia)4300多(duo)萬(wan)(wan)。根據(ju)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家統(tong)計局公布的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)數(shu)據(ju),2010~2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)間農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)工(gong)數(shu)量增加(jia)(jia)了(le)(le)(le)3900萬(wan)(wan),其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)外出農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)工(gong)數(shu)量僅增加(jia)(jia)了(le)(le)(le)1850萬(wan)(wan)。“民(min)工(gong)荒(huang)”在(zai)(zai)東部沿(yan)海地區(qu)蔓(man)延之(zhi)后(hou),其他(ta)地區(qu)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)市(shi)場也出現了(le)(le)(le)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)工(gong)供(gong)不應求(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)現象(xiang),農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)工(gong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)工(gong)資水平逐年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)上(shang)漲(zhang),這(zhe)(zhe)些證據(ju)都(dou)表明中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)到達了(le)(le)(le)“劉(liu)易斯轉折點”(蔡昉(fang)、都(dou)陽(yang),2011)。其次是勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)數(shu)量開始減(jian)少:2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(16~64歲(sui))比前(qian)一年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)少了(le)(le)(le)160萬(wan)(wan),這(zhe)(zhe)標(biao)志著(zhu)(zhu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)潛(qian)在(zai)(zai)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)資源縮減(jian)時(shi)代(dai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)到來。到2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)總共減(jian)少了(le)(le)(le)578萬(wan)(wan),隨著(zhu)(zhu)1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)代(dai)出生高峰隊列陸續(xu)超出勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling),勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)將會加(jia)(jia)速減(jian)少。聯合國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(United Nations,2017)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)方案預測結果顯(xian)示,中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)在(zai)(zai)未來很(hen)長一個時(shi)期(qi)內將持續(xu)地加(jia)(jia)速減(jian)少,到2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)將減(jian)少2億(yi)人(ren)(ren)。勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)轉為(wei)負(fu)增長對(dui)于中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)而言是一個重大(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)變數(shu),不僅給(gei)(gei)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)市(shi)場供(gong)求(qiu)關系帶來結構(gou)性轉變,同時(shi)也對(dui)各種相關制度的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)改革提出了(le)(le)(le)迫切(qie)要求(qiu)。
(二)人口撫養比變化趨勢的轉折
人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)撫(fu)養比變(bian)化的(de)(de)(de)(de)轉折(zhe)點出(chu)現于(yu)2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),撫(fu)養比從前(qian)一(yi)(yi)(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)34.2%提(ti)(ti)(ti)高到34.4%,從而終結了(le)(le)(le)(le)持(chi)續了(le)(le)(le)(le)30多年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)下(xia)降(jiang)過程(cheng)。導致這個(ge)(ge)轉折(zhe)性變(bian)化的(de)(de)(de)(de)直(zhi)(zhi)接原因(yin)有(you)兩個(ge)(ge)。一(yi)(yi)(yi)個(ge)(ge)原因(yin)是勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)緩慢,2005~2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)總(zong)共增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)了(le)(le)(le)(le)6.5%,2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和(he)(he)(he)2012年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)僅(jin)僅(jin)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)了(le)(le)(le)(le)0.35%和(he)(he)(he)0.1%。15~64歲勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)占總(zong)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)比重的(de)(de)(de)(de)轉折(zhe)發生在2012年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),雖然比2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)峰值(74.4%)僅(jin)僅(jin)降(jiang)低了(le)(le)(le)(le)0.3個(ge)(ge)百分點,但這個(ge)(ge)轉折(zhe)的(de)(de)(de)(de)意義重大(da)(da)。2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)占比降(jiang)到73.0%,使得這個(ge)(ge)下(xia)降(jiang)趨勢得到確認。另(ling)一(yi)(yi)(yi)個(ge)(ge)原因(yin)是老年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)出(chu)現了(le)(le)(le)(le)較快的(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang),2005~2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)了(le)(le)(le)(le)21.8%,年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)率(lv)為3.28%,遠(yuan)遠(yuan)超過勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)速度。2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)以后(hou)老年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)率(lv)進一(yi)(yi)(yi)步提(ti)(ti)(ti)高,2011~2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)均增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)率(lv)達到4.26%,而勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)自(zi)2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)起(qi)轉為負增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang),這使得人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)撫(fu)養比在2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提(ti)(ti)(ti)高到37%。從未來發展趨勢看,由(you)于(yu)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)加速減少(shao)和(he)(he)(he)老年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)加速增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang),人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)撫(fu)養比將會(hui)(hui)持(chi)續提(ti)(ti)(ti)高。此(ci)外,政策調整后(hou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)生育(yu)率(lv)回升會(hui)(hui)在一(yi)(yi)(yi)定程(cheng)度上提(ti)(ti)(ti)高少(shao)兒(er)撫(fu)養比,因(yin)此(ci)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)撫(fu)養比提(ti)(ti)(ti)高的(de)(de)(de)(de)幅度將會(hui)(hui)進一(yi)(yi)(yi)步加大(da)(da)。根據聯合國中(zhong)方案預測結果,未來的(de)(de)(de)(de)40年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)里(li),少(shao)兒(er)撫(fu)養比基本上是在22~25之間窄(zhai)幅波動(dong)(dong),而老年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)撫(fu)養比在2060年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)之前(qian)一(yi)(yi)(yi)直(zhi)(zhi)保持(chi)上升狀態,并在2028年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)左右(you)超過少(shao)兒(er)撫(fu)養比,成為決定總(zong)撫(fu)養比變(bian)化趨勢的(de)(de)(de)(de)主導因(yin)素(su)。
在其(qi)他條件一(yi)定的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情(qing)況下(xia),人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)高(gao)意(yi)味著人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)生(sheng)產(chan)性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)下(xia)降,邊(bian)際(ji)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)紅(hong)利為(wei)負。特別需要注意(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)(shi),人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)高(gao)有兩種(zhong)情(qing)況,其(qi)一(yi)是(shi)(shi)由少兒(er)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)主導(dao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)總(zong)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)高(gao),其(qi)二是(shi)(shi)由老年(nian)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)主導(dao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)總(zong)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)高(gao)。或者說,同樣水(shui)(shui)(shui)平(ping)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi),但(dan)(dan)內部結(jie)(jie)構(gou)不同,一(yi)種(zhong)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)是(shi)(shi)以(yi)負擔少兒(er)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)為(wei)主,另一(yi)種(zhong)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)是(shi)(shi)以(yi)負擔老年(nian)人(ren)(ren)為(wei)主。例如,2032年(nian)中(zhong)國人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)將(jiang)回升到51%左右,與1994年(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)水(shui)(shui)(shui)平(ping)相當,但(dan)(dan)是(shi)(shi)1994年(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)中(zhong),少兒(er)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)占到83.4%,而(er)2032年(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)中(zhong),老年(nian)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)占到56%。這兩種(zhong)情(qing)況的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)社會(hui)經濟(ji)含義有很大差別,前者是(shi)(shi)對未(wei)來(lai)生(sheng)產(chan)力的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)投資(zi),后(hou)者則是(shi)(shi)純粹的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)消費,對于公共(gong)支出而(er)言,這兩種(zhong)負擔的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)意(yi)義也完全不同。中(zhong)國未(wei)來(lai)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)將(jiang)會(hui)在水(shui)(shui)(shui)平(ping)和結(jie)(jie)構(gou)兩個維(wei)(wei)(wei)度(du)上(shang)(shang)發(fa)生(sheng)變(bian)化,在水(shui)(shui)(shui)平(ping)維(wei)(wei)(wei)度(du)上(shang)(shang)將(jiang)會(hui)出現長達40年(nian)左右的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)上(shang)(shang)升趨勢,在結(jie)(jie)構(gou)維(wei)(wei)(wei)度(du)上(shang)(shang)將(jiang)發(fa)生(sheng)從以(yi)少兒(er)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)為(wei)主的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)轉變(bian)為(wei)以(yi)老年(nian)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)為(wei)主的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)。這兩個維(wei)(wei)(wei)度(du)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)變(bian)化都會(hui)削弱人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)產(chan)性(xing)。
(三)生育政策的轉向和生育率的回升
如同許多(duo)(duo)處于后生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)率(lv)轉(zhuan)變(bian)階(jie)段的(de)(de)(de)國家(jia),中(zhong)(zhong)國在完成了轉(zhuan)變(bian)之后也(ye)很快走(zou)向了很低(di)水(shui)平(ping)的(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)率(lv)。長期的(de)(de)(de)低(di)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)率(lv)會(hui)導致(zhi)高度的(de)(de)(de)老(lao)齡(ling)化(hua)(hua)和人口衰退,從(cong)而給社(she)會(hui)經濟帶(dai)來多(duo)(duo)重挑(tiao)戰(zhan),因此(ci)世界上(shang)幾乎所有處于很低(di)和極低(di)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)水(shui)平(ping)的(de)(de)(de)國家(jia)都采取了支持和鼓(gu)勵生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)的(de)(de)(de)政(zheng)策(ce)。對(dui)(dui)于生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)率(lv)轉(zhuan)變(bian)非(fei)常迅速的(de)(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)國而言,如果低(di)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)率(lv)不(bu)能很快得(de)到扭轉(zhuan),將會(hui)面臨比其他國家(jia)更為嚴峻的(de)(de)(de)局(ju)面。2013年(nian)11月,《中(zhong)(zhong)共中(zhong)(zhong)央(yang)關于全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)面深化(hua)(hua)改(gai)革(ge)若(ruo)干重大問題的(de)(de)(de)決(jue)定(ding)》提(ti)出(chu)“啟(qi)動實施一(yi)(yi)方是獨生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)子(zi)女(nv)的(de)(de)(de)夫(fu)婦(fu)(fu)可生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)兩個(ge)孩(hai)子(zi)的(de)(de)(de)政(zheng)策(ce)”,2015年(nian)10月中(zhong)(zhong)共中(zhong)(zhong)央(yang)決(jue)定(ding)“全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)面實施一(yi)(yi)對(dui)(dui)夫(fu)婦(fu)(fu)可以生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)兩個(ge)孩(hai)子(zi)政(zheng)策(ce)”。政(zheng)策(ce)實施后,雖然生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)率(lv)提(ti)高的(de)(de)(de)幅度不(bu)盡如人意(yi),但也(ye)已經顯現出(chu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)率(lv)對(dui)(dui)新生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)政(zheng)策(ce)的(de)(de)(de)積極反應。國家(jia)統(tong)計(ji)局(ju)根(gen)據(ju)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)國人口變(bian)動抽樣調查(cha)數據(ju)的(de)(de)(de)推算分(fen)析表明(ming),2016年(nian)二(er)孩(hai)出(chu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)數量(liang)大幅上(shang)升,明(ming)顯高于“十二(er)五(wu)”時期平(ping)均(jun)水(shui)平(ping),2017年(nian)二(er)孩(hai)數量(liang)進一(yi)(yi)步上(shang)升至883萬人,比2016年(nian)增加(jia)了162萬人;二(er)孩(hai)占全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)部(bu)(bu)出(chu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)人口的(de)(de)(de)比重達到51.2%,比2016年(nian)提(ti)高了11個(ge)百分(fen)點。在全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)部(bu)(bu)出(chu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)嬰兒中(zhong)(zhong),二(er)孩(hai)的(de)(de)(de)比例明(ming)顯提(ti)高,并且超過了50%。根(gen)據(ju)世界銀行估計(ji),中(zhong)(zhong)國的(de)(de)(de)總和生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)率(lv)從(cong)1996年(nian)開始一(yi)(yi)直低(di)于1.6,直到2013年(nian)回升到1.6,2016年(nian)為1.62。如果這個(ge)趨勢能夠(gou)得(de)到延續(xu),那么中(zhong)(zhong)國的(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)率(lv)就可以回升到一(yi)(yi)個(ge)相對(dui)(dui)安全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)的(de)(de)(de)水(shui)平(ping)。
(四)老齡化動力機制的轉換
老(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)進(jin)程(cheng)并非只由(you)一(yi)種(zhong)力(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong),因(yin)為老(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)是(shi)以老(lao)年(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)占總人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)比重來衡量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de),老(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)是(shi)老(lao)年(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)與其他年(nian)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)相對(dui)變化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)結(jie)果。因(yin)此(ci),有三種(zhong)力(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)會推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)老(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua),第(di)(di)一(yi)個力(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)是(shi)生育率(lv)(lv)下(xia)降導(dao)(dao)致出生人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)減少,此(ci)時即使(shi)老(lao)年(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)緩慢甚(shen)至沒有增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang),老(lao)年(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)比重也會提高;第(di)(di)二個力(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)是(shi)老(lao)年(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang);第(di)(di)三個力(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)是(shi)長(chang)壽,即老(lao)年(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)存(cun)活的(de)(de)(de)(de)年(nian)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)更高。由(you)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)變化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)內在(zai)(zai)機(ji)理和(he)歷史邏輯所決定,一(yi)個人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)群體的(de)(de)(de)(de)老(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)過程(cheng)是(shi)分(fen)別由(you)不同的(de)(de)(de)(de)力(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)遞次推(tui)(tui)(tui)進(jin)的(de)(de)(de)(de),或者(zhe)說,在(zai)(zai)老(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)發展的(de)(de)(de)(de)不同階(jie)(jie)(jie)段(duan),推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)老(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)主導(dao)(dao)力(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)并不相同。據此(ci),可以把老(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)過程(cheng)劃分(fen)為前期(qi)(qi)階(jie)(jie)(jie)段(duan)、中期(qi)(qi)階(jie)(jie)(jie)段(duan)和(he)后期(qi)(qi)階(jie)(jie)(jie)段(duan)。在(zai)(zai)老(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)前期(qi)(qi)階(jie)(jie)(jie)段(duan),推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)老(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)主導(dao)(dao)力(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)是(shi)生育率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)下(xia)降,中期(qi)(qi)階(jie)(jie)(jie)段(duan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)主導(dao)(dao)力(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)是(shi)老(lao)年(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang),后期(qi)(qi)階(jie)(jie)(jie)段(duan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)主導(dao)(dao)力(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)是(shi)長(chang)壽。
對(dui)于中(zhong)國而言,老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)前期(qi)階(jie)段是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)從1970年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開始(shi)(shi)到(dao)(dao)2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)結束(shu)這(zhe)里(li)的(de)階(jie)段劃分年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)份(fen)并非(fei)精確時間(jian)的(de)表(biao)達(da),而是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)大致(zhi)的(de)估計。即使(shi)如此,也有(you)一(yi)(yi)些依據:第一(yi)(yi),中(zhong)國的(de)生(sheng)育率(lv)轉(zhuan)變從1970年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開始(shi)(shi),而老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)也是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)在(zai)這(zhe)一(yi)(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)起(qi)步。第二,從2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開始(shi)(shi),抗日戰(zhan)爭結束(shu)后出(chu)生(sheng)的(de)人(ren)(ren)開始(shi)(shi)進(jin)(jin)入(ru)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),緊跟其后是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)代(dai)出(chu)生(sheng)高峰(feng)隊列陸(lu)續進(jin)(jin)入(ru)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),這(zhe)個時期(qi)65歲(sui)及以(yi)上老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)總共增(zeng)加了8320萬,平(ping)(ping)均每(mei)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)凈(jing)增(zeng)208萬,而15歲(sui)以(yi)下(xia)少兒(er)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)減(jian)(jian)少了9017萬,平(ping)(ping)均每(mei)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)凈(jing)減(jian)(jian)225萬。因(yin)此,這(zhe)個時期(qi)老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)主導力量是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)1970年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開始(shi)(shi)的(de)生(sheng)育率(lv)轉(zhuan)變及后來(lai)的(de)低(di)生(sheng)育率(lv)。在(zai)此期(qi)間(jian),老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)水平(ping)(ping)從3.76%提(ti)高到(dao)(dao)8.40%,平(ping)(ping)均每(mei)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提(ti)高0.12個百(bai)分點。老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)中(zhong)期(qi)階(jie)段是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)從2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開始(shi)(shi)到(dao)(dao)2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)左右結束(shu),從2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開始(shi)(shi),中(zhong)國老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)進(jin)(jin)入(ru)了一(yi)(yi)個快速增(zeng)長時期(qi),2010~2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)將總共增(zeng)加2.24億人(ren)(ren),年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)均增(zeng)長率(lv)為(wei)3.62%,平(ping)(ping)均每(mei)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)凈(jing)增(zeng)746萬。在(zai)此期(qi)間(jian),1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)代(dai)和1960年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)代(dai)出(chu)生(sheng)高峰(feng)隊列將全部(bu)進(jin)(jin)入(ru)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)。在(zai)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)快速增(zeng)長的(de)同時,總人(ren)(ren)口(kou)將在(zai)2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)左右開始(shi)(shi)出(chu)現負增(zeng)長,這(zhe)兩種相反的(de)變化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)趨勢進(jin)(jin)一(yi)(yi)步提(ti)高了老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)發展速度(du),老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)水平(ping)(ping)在(zai)2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)將達(da)到(dao)(dao)23.84%,平(ping)(ping)均每(mei)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提(ti)高0.51個百(bai)分點。與前一(yi)(yi)個階(jie)段相比,中(zhong)期(qi)階(jie)段老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)速度(du)提(ti)高了3倍(bei)。因(yin)此,中(zhong)國老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)動力機制已經(jing)轉(zhuan)變為(wei)以(yi)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)增(zeng)長為(wei)主導力量。
到(dao)2040年(nian)(nian)左右(you),中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)將進入老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)后期(qi)(qi)(qi)階(jie)段,即以(yi)長(chang)壽為主(zhu)導力量的(de)(de)(de)老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)階(jie)段,這(zhe)個(ge)(ge)階(jie)段也可(ke)稱為高(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)階(jie)段。到(dao)目(mu)前為止,學術界(jie)對于(yu)高(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)或者高(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)社(she)(she)會的(de)(de)(de)標(biao)(biao)(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)還沒有一(yi)個(ge)(ge)明確的(de)(de)(de)定義(yi),或者被普(pu)遍(bian)接受的(de)(de)(de)定義(yi)。考慮到(dao)這(zhe)個(ge)(ge)情況,可(ke)以(yi)基于(yu)歷史(shi)觀察歸納出(chu)可(ke)用(yong)于(yu)判斷的(de)(de)(de)標(biao)(biao)(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)。我(wo)們選擇(ze)了(le)(le)兩個(ge)(ge)參照(zhao)(zhao)(zhao)系(xi),一(yi)個(ge)(ge)是(shi)高(gao)收入國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)水平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping),另一(yi)個(ge)(ge)是(shi)目(mu)前世界(jie)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)最長(chang)壽的(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)日(ri)本(ben)。之(zhi)(zhi)所以(yi)選擇(ze)這(zhe)兩個(ge)(ge)參照(zhao)(zhao)(zhao)系(xi),是(shi)因(yin)為其(qi)老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)進程遠遠走在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)了(le)(le)其(qi)他國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)和(he)(he)地區的(de)(de)(de)前面(mian),并可(ke)以(yi)呈(cheng)現一(yi)個(ge)(ge)完(wan)整(zheng)的(de)(de)(de)老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)過程。選取的(de)(de)(de)參照(zhao)(zhao)(zhao)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)包括四個(ge)(ge):(1)出(chu)生(sheng)(sheng)時(shi)(shi)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)預(yu)(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)壽命達(da)(da)(da)到(dao)80歲;(2)60歲時(shi)(shi)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)預(yu)(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)壽命達(da)(da)(da)到(dao)25歲;(3)80歲及(ji)以(yi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)總人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)中(zhong)占(zhan)比達(da)(da)(da)到(dao)5%;(4)80歲及(ji)以(yi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)65歲及(ji)以(yi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)中(zhong)占(zhan)比達(da)(da)(da)到(dao)25%。日(ri)本(ben)是(shi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)2006年(nian)(nian)同時(shi)(shi)滿(man)(man)足(zu)了(le)(le)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)述條(tiao)(tiao)件;而高(gao)收入國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)2005年(nian)(nian)滿(man)(man)足(zu)了(le)(le)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(3)的(de)(de)(de)條(tiao)(tiao)件,在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)2019年(nian)(nian)滿(man)(man)足(zu)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(4)的(de)(de)(de)條(tiao)(tiao)件,并分別(bie)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)2012年(nian)(nian)和(he)(he)2024年(nian)(nian)滿(man)(man)足(zu)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(1)的(de)(de)(de)條(tiao)(tiao)件和(he)(he)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(2)的(de)(de)(de)條(tiao)(tiao)件。如(ru)果稍(shao)微放松指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(2)的(de)(de)(de)條(tiao)(tiao)件高(gao)收入國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)2015~2020年(nian)(nian)60歲時(shi)(shi)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)預(yu)(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)壽命為24.5歲,高(gao)收入國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)整(zheng)體上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)應(ying)該(gai)是(shi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)2019年(nian)(nian)進入高(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)社(she)(she)會。日(ri)本(ben)和(he)(he)高(gao)收入國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)的(de)(de)(de)情況表明,上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)述4項指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)水平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)之(zhi)(zhi)間具有高(gao)度的(de)(de)(de)協同性和(he)(he)一(yi)致性,因(yin)此(ci)可(ke)以(yi)作為高(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)或高(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)社(she)(she)會的(de)(de)(de)標(biao)(biao)(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)。按照(zhao)(zhao)(zhao)這(zhe)個(ge)(ge)標(biao)(biao)(biao)準(zhun)(zhun),中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)將在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)2040~2045年(nian)(nian)間進入高(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)社(she)(she)會,根據聯合國(guo)(guo)(guo)中(zhong)方(fang)案預(yu)(yu)(yu)測,2040~2045年(nian)(nian)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)出(chu)生(sheng)(sheng)時(shi)(shi)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)預(yu)(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)壽命為80.34歲,60歲時(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)預(yu)(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)壽命為22.87歲;80歲及(ji)以(yi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)總人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)中(zhong)占(zhan)比于(yu)2041年(nian)(nian)達(da)(da)(da)到(dao)5.15%,在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)65歲及(ji)以(yi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)占(zhan)比于(yu)2045年(nian)(nian)達(da)(da)(da)到(dao)24.9%。
(五)城鎮化已進入中后期發展階段
按照國(guo)際經驗,人(ren)口(kou)城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鎮化(hua)進程可以劃分為三個發展階段(duan)(duan)(duan),在達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)50%之前是前期階段(duan)(duan)(duan),從50%到(dao)(dao)70%是中期階段(duan)(duan)(duan),從70%到(dao)(dao)80%是后(hou)期階段(duan)(duan)(duan)。城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鎮化(hua)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)80%即標志(zhi)著城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鎮化(hua)的(de)完成(cheng)。根(gen)(gen)據聯合國(guo)(United Nations,2018)的(de)估計,2015年(nian)發達(da)(da)國(guo)家人(ren)口(kou)城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鎮化(hua)的(de)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)為78.1%,高收入國(guo)家的(de)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)為80.9%。一些國(guo)家在達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)這(zhe)(zhe)個水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)后(hou)還(huan)(huan)會進一步提高,例如2015年(nian)比利(li)時達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)97.9%,日(ri)本達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)91.4%,丹麥達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)87.5%,瑞典達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)86.6%。還(huan)(huan)有一些人(ren)口(kou)規模(mo)很小或地理條(tiao)件特殊的(de)國(guo)家和地區(qu)超(chao)過(guo)90%甚至達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)100%。此外,拉(la)(la)美的(de)烏拉(la)(la)圭(95.5%)、阿根(gen)(gen)廷(ting)(91.5%)、委(wei)內瑞拉(la)(la)(88.2%)、智利(li)(87.4%)、巴西(85.8%)等國(guo)的(de)城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鎮化(hua)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)也非常高,但這(zhe)(zhe)些國(guo)家存在著人(ren)口(kou)過(guo)度城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鎮化(hua)問(wen)題(ti)。
中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)的(de)人口(kou)(kou)城鎮(zhen)化進(jin)程自1978年(nian)(nian)(nian)啟動,從(cong)2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)開始(shi)加(jia)速(su),到2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)總(zong)共提高了(le)40個百(bai)分點。按照2000~2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)發(fa)展速(su)度,2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)人口(kou)(kou)城鎮(zhen)化水平(ping)可以(yi)達(da)到60%。這標志著(zhu)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)的(de)人口(kou)(kou)城鎮(zhen)化進(jin)程目前已進(jin)入(ru)中(zhong)期(qi)發(fa)展階段的(de)后(hou)半期(qi),根據聯(lian)合國(guo)(guo)的(de)預測(United Nations,2018),中(zhong)期(qi)發(fa)展階段將在(zai)2030年(nian)(nian)(nian)結束(shu),屆時的(de)人口(kou)(kou)城鎮(zhen)化水平(ping)為70%;從(cong)2031年(nian)(nian)(nian)開始(shi)進(jin)入(ru)后(hou)期(qi)發(fa)展階段,在(zai)2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)達(da)到80%,這意味(wei)著(zhu)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)人口(kou)(kou)城鎮(zhen)化進(jin)程還需要(yao)30年(nian)(nian)(nian)左右(you)才(cai)能結束(shu)。
(六)人口負增長時代即將到來
對于中國(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)而(er)言,21世紀上半葉(xie)發生(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)最大的(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)事件(jian)莫過(guo)于人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)負增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)時代的(de)(de)(de)(de)到(dao)來。根據聯合國(guo)中方案總和生(sheng)育率(lv)設定為2015~2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.63,2020~2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.66,2025~2030年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.69,2030~2035年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.71,2035~2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.72,2040~2045年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.74,2045~2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.75,2050~2055年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.76,2055~2060年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.77,2060~2065年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.77。預測,中國(guo)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)將(jiang)(jiang)在2029年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)達到(dao)峰值(zhi)14.42億(yi)(yi),從2030年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)始(shi)進入(ru)持續的(de)(de)(de)(de)負增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang),2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)少到(dao)13.64億(yi)(yi),2065年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)少到(dao)12.48億(yi)(yi),即(ji)縮(suo)減(jian)到(dao)1996年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)規模。如果總和生(sheng)育率(lv)一(yi)直保持在1.6的(de)(de)(de)(de)水平,人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)負增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)將(jiang)(jiang)提前(qian)到(dao)2027年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)出現,2065年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)減(jian)少到(dao)11.72億(yi)(yi),相當于1990年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)規模。
長期持續的人口(kou)負(fu)增長究竟會造成怎樣(yang)的社(she)會經(jing)濟(ji)后(hou)果?從理論邏輯上看,長期的人口(kou)衰退,尤其是(shi)伴隨著不(bu)斷加(jia)劇的老(lao)齡化,勢必會帶(dai)來非常不(bu)利的社(she)會經(jing)濟(ji)后(hou)果。中國的人口(kou)負(fu)增長已(yi)經(jing)勢不(bu)可當(dang),從現在開始(shi)亟須開展研究和(he)進行(xing)政(zheng)策儲(chu)備。
互聯網使用對中低收入人群有顯著影響
研(yan)究發(fa)現:第(di)一,個(ge)體有互(hu)聯(lian)網使(shi)(shi)用(yong)(yong)行為可(ke)以使(shi)(shi)個(ge)體年勞動收(shou)入(ru)(ru)增(zeng)加(jia)46.52%;第(di)二,互(hu)聯(lian)網使(shi)(shi)用(yong)(yong)對中(zhong)低收(shou)入(ru)(ru)人群有顯著影(ying)響(xiang),對高(gao)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)人群沒有顯著影(ying)響(xiang)。具(ju)體來說,使(shi)(shi)用(yong)(yong)互(hu)聯(lian)網讓處在25%和50%分(fen)(fen)位數(shu)上的就業(ye)者(zhe)(zhe)的年工資水平(ping)分(fen)(fen)別提高(gao)了(le)11950.23元和8371.39元;第(di)三,使(shi)(shi)用(yong)(yong)互(hu)聯(lian)網的中(zhong)高(gao)技能勞動者(zhe)(zhe)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)提高(gao)了(le)83.39%,遠(yuan)高(gao)于(yu)總體樣(yang)本回(hui)歸結果,使(shi)(shi)用(yong)(yong)互(hu)聯(lian)網對低技能勞動者(zhe)(zhe)沒有顯著影(ying)響(xiang)。
因此,綠皮書建(jian)議:第一,降低(di)數(shu)字化(hua)門檻以提升勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)者收入(ru)。由(you)于我國(guo)的(de)(de)區域發展(zhan)不平衡(heng),勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)者受教(jiao)育水(shui)平和互聯(lian)網(wang)使用能力差異巨大(da),我國(guo)應當在國(guo)家層(ceng)面降低(di)數(shu)字化(hua)門檻,提升低(di)技能勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)者對(dui)于互聯(lian)網(wang)的(de)(de)基本使用能力,開展(zhan)大(da)量的(de)(de)互聯(lian)網(wang)技能培訓課(ke)程,降低(di)不同(tong)(tong)群體間的(de)(de)“數(shu)字鴻溝”。同(tong)(tong)時,隨(sui)著(zhu)新(xin)(xin)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)和新(xin)(xin)就業的(de)(de)迅猛發展(zhan),新(xin)(xin)的(de)(de)勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)保護(hu)法(fa)律(lv)亟待出臺,新(xin)(xin)型勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)關系有待確立。但(dan)在新(xin)(xin)的(de)(de)法(fa)律(lv)法(fa)規和政(zheng)策文件(jian)的(de)(de)干預過程中(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)警惕政(zheng)府(fu)對(dui)市(shi)場經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)過度干預。在新(xin)(xin)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)發展(zhan)中(zhong)(zhong),政(zheng)府(fu)應當扮演更重要(yao)的(de)(de)角色,減少直接干預,側重于為市(shi)場提供(gong)必要(yao)的(de)(de)政(zheng)策與制度條(tiao)件(jian)。
第二,擴(kuo)大(da)高(gao)(gao)等教(jiao)(jiao)育(yu)(yu)(yu)規模和(he)創新能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)以提(ti)升(sheng)勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)技(ji)能(neng)(neng)。從(cong)本文(wen)研究可(ke)以看出,互(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)使用(yong)為高(gao)(gao)技(ji)能(neng)(neng)勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)提(ti)供更(geng)加(jia)豐(feng)富的(de)(de)(de)就業(ye)機會(hui)和(he)靈活的(de)(de)(de)就業(ye)選擇,并在一定程(cheng)度(du)上(shang)惡化了低(di)技(ji)能(neng)(neng)勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)的(de)(de)(de)就業(ye)空間。互(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)加(jia)劇了不同(tong)技(ji)能(neng)(neng)勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)間的(de)(de)(de)結構(gou)性失(shi)衡,隨著(zhu)互(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)規模的(de)(de)(de)擴(kuo)大(da)、個體互(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)使用(yong)和(he)數字人(ren)(ren)力(li)(li)(li)資(zi)本的(de)(de)(de)提(ti)高(gao)(gao),中(zhong)高(gao)(gao)技(ji)能(neng)(neng)勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)在勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)市場(chang)上(shang)獲(huo)得更(geng)高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)收益(yi),而互(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展對于(yu)低(di)技(ji)能(neng)(neng)勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)的(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)收入提(ti)高(gao)(gao)并不顯著(zhu)。考慮到(dao)低(di)技(ji)能(neng)(neng)勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)更(geng)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)被技(ji)術偏(pian)向型的(de)(de)(de)互(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)所(suo)替代(dai),無(wu)論是(shi)對于(yu)沒(mei)有進入勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)市場(chang)的(de)(de)(de)低(di)學歷潛在就業(ye)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)還是(shi)低(di)技(ji)能(neng)(neng)勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)來說,互(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)時(shi)(shi)代(dai)的(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)格局都不利于(yu)他們(men)的(de)(de)(de)就業(ye)前(qian)景。因此,隨著(zhu)人(ren)(ren)口出生率增速(su)減緩(huan),人(ren)(ren)口老齡化增速(su)加(jia)快,只(zhi)有進一步(bu)擴(kuo)大(da)高(gao)(gao)等教(jiao)(jiao)育(yu)(yu)(yu)規模,才(cai)能(neng)(neng)改善勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)市場(chang)人(ren)(ren)才(cai)技(ji)能(neng)(neng)結構(gou),為“中(zhong)國(guo)制造2025”和(he)高(gao)(gao)端(duan)服務業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)轉(zhuan)型提(ti)供足夠的(de)(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)才(cai)需求。同(tong)時(shi)(shi),隨著(zhu)技(ji)術進步(bu)速(su)度(du)的(de)(de)(de)加(jia)快和(he)互(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)普及程(cheng)度(du)的(de)(de)(de)提(ti)升(sheng),我國(guo)高(gao)(gao)等教(jiao)(jiao)育(yu)(yu)(yu)應(ying)當更(geng)加(jia)重(zhong)(zhong)視培養(yang)創新能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li),在提(ti)升(sheng)技(ji)能(neng)(neng)教(jiao)(jiao)育(yu)(yu)(yu)的(de)(de)(de)同(tong)時(shi)(shi),培育(yu)(yu)(yu)更(geng)多(duo)具(ju)(ju)有創新精神(shen)的(de)(de)(de)高(gao)(gao)等本科教(jiao)(jiao)育(yu)(yu)(yu)人(ren)(ren)才(cai)和(he)具(ju)(ju)有工匠精神(shen)的(de)(de)(de)高(gao)(gao)等職(zhi)業(ye)教(jiao)(jiao)育(yu)(yu)(yu)人(ren)(ren)才(cai),把“創新能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)”作為改善勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)市場(chang)技(ji)能(neng)(neng)人(ren)(ren)才(cai)結構(gou)的(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)(zhong)中(zhong)之重(zhong)(zhong)。
轉自社科文獻: