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2012年8月1日，印(yin)(yin)度(du)官(guan)員宣(xuan)布，印(yin)(yin)度(du)大面積斷電(dian)已經(jing)結束。印(yin)(yin)度(du)發生的停電(dian)事(shi)故，覆(fu)蓋了(le)一半(ban)以上(shang)的國土，直接影響6億多人的生活(huo)，是這個南亞國家11年來最嚴重的停電(dian)事(shi)故。

事故過程

印度北部(bu)和(he)東(dong)部(bu)地區7月30日和(he)31日連續發生兩次大面積停(ting)電(dian)事故。突(tu)如其來(lai)的斷電(dian)導致交通陷入混亂(luan)，全(quan)國(guo)超(chao)過300列火(huo)車停(ting)運(yun)，首都新德里的地鐵也全(quan)部(bu)停(ting)運(yun)，造成旅客大量(liang)滯(zhi)留，公路(lu)交通出現大面積擁堵。一些(xie)礦工被困井下(xia)。銀(yin)行系統陷入癱(tan)瘓，一度給印度的金融交易帶來(lai)障(zhang)礙。

第一(yi)次事故發生后(hou)，印(yin)度電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)部門排除故障，在停(ting)電(dian)(dian)(dian)后(hou)15個(ge)小時(shi)內基本恢復了電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)應。但旁(pang)遮普邦(bang)(bang)、哈里亞納(na)邦(bang)(bang)以及北(bei)方(fang)邦(bang)(bang)等幾個(ge)地(di)區在供(gong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)恢復后(hou)繼續超負荷用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)，導致了第二次大面(mian)積停(ting)電(dian)(dian)(dian)。印(yin)度電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)部門因(yin)此不得不從鄰國(guo)輸入電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)來(lai)滿足新德里的用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)需求。截至8月1日，印(yin)度北(bei)部地(di)區95%的電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)應已恢復。

事故分析

貝恩咨詢公司高(gao)級合伙人阿密(mi)特·辛哈(ha)認為，此次停電事故(gu)給印度(du)經濟敲響(xiang)了警(jing)鐘——印度(du)電力(li)供應至(zhi)少需(xu)要(yao)保(bao)持(chi)每年6．5%至(zhi)7%的增速(su)，否(fou)則(ze)將(jiang)會(hui)對該國制造(zao)業和出(chu)口(kou)企業造(zao)成(cheng)傷害。

印度最大(da)(da)行(xing)業協會(hui)(hui)印度工商聯(lian)合會(hui)(hui)主席卡諾里亞說(shuo)：“連續兩天如此大(da)(da)規模的停電，值得(de)我們(men)密切關注(zhu)，這當(dang)然會(hui)(hui)

對于商(shang)業投資環境本就(jiu)存在(zai)不少問題(ti)的印(yin)度來說，此(ci)次(ci)大(da)停(ting)電不僅影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)企業生產和(he)盈利水平，還影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)到印(yin)度在(zai)外國投資者(zhe)眼中(zhong)的形象。

印度產(chan)業(ye)聯合會理事長(chang)錢德拉(la)吉(ji)特(te)·班(ban)納吉(ji)表(biao)示，印度經濟(ji)近來增長(chang)放緩(huan)，外(wai)界(jie)本就對(dui)印度前景不太看好，如今電網兩(liang)天內(nei)連續崩潰無疑使(shi)印度的形象進一步(bu)受(shou)損，令有(you)意投資印度的外(wai)國(guo)企業(ye)望而卻(que)步(bu)。對(dui)于(yu)一個擁有(you)世界(jie)約六分之一人(ren)口(kou)的新興(xing)經濟(ji)體(ti)，有(you)必要使(shi)基(ji)礎設施(shi)建設與印度的強國(guo)夢想(xiang)相匹配。

事故影響

世(shi)界媒體都在議(yi)論(lun)印(yin)度大(da)(da)(da)停(ting)(ting)電(dian)，但任何國家都不(bu)(bu)能(neng)否認(ren)自己也遭遇過大(da)(da)(da)停(ting)(ting)電(dian)的歷史，只(zhi)是規模(mo)和破壞程度不(bu)(bu)同罷了(le)。美(mei)國上世(shi)紀后半(ban)葉，至(zhi)(zhi)少(shao)出現(xian)三次(ci)大(da)(da)(da)規模(mo)停(ting)(ting)電(dian)事故，近十多(duo)年時間里(li)(li)，美(mei)國至(zhi)(zhi)少(shao)遭遇過數次(ci)大(da)(da)(da)停(ting)(ting)電(dian)。如2008年，佛羅里(li)(li)達(da)州(zhou)發(fa)生大(da)(da)(da)停(ting)(ting)電(dian)，300萬(wan)人(ren)沒有電(dian)力供應(ying)；2003年大(da)(da)(da)停(ting)(ting)電(dian)，由(you)密歇根州(zhou)延(yan)伸至(zhi)(zhi)紐約，最后蔓延(yan)到加拿大(da)(da)(da)。危機專家承認(ren)，“一(yi)次(ci)大(da)(da)(da)停(ting)(ting)電(dian)，即使是數秒鐘，也不(bu)(bu)亞于一(yi)場大(da)(da)(da)地震帶來的破壞”。

很(hen)多新興經濟(ji)體(ti)(ti)在(zai)經濟(ji)高(gao)增(zeng)長的刺激或尋(xun)求經濟(ji)高(gao)增(zeng)長的動機之下，只顧電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力開發(fa)，卻忽(hu)視(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)安全工作，對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)管理體(ti)(ti)制(zhi)改革方面重視(shi)不夠，導致“缺電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)”和(he)“有(you)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)”下都(dou)斷電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)停(ting)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的情況，造成大量的浪費和(he)損失。印(yin)(yin)度(du)此(ci)次發(fa)生(sheng)的問題，對印(yin)(yin)度(du)是個現實教訓，對世界(jie)各新興經濟(ji)體(ti)(ti)而言，是給電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)安全上(shang)了一課。只要體(ti)(ti)認(ren)“大停(ting)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)或也會發(fa)生(sheng)在(zai)我(wo)(wo)們(men)身上(shang)”，那么，我(wo)(wo)們(men)就(jiu)應(ying)該從漠不關心等心態中(zhong)覺醒過來，把印(yin)(yin)度(du)問題視(shi)為自己的問題，做(zuo)好自己的安全工作。

簡介

印度北部和東部地區7月30日和31日連續發

生兩(liang)次大面(mian)積停(ting)電事故。突如其來的(de)斷電導致交(jiao)通陷入混(hun)亂，全國超過300列火(huo)車停(ting)運，首都新德里(li)的(de)地鐵(tie)也全部停(ting)運，造成旅客大量滯留，公路交(jiao)通出現(xian)大面(mian)積擁堵(du)。一些礦工被困井下。銀(yin)行系統陷入癱(tan)瘓(huan)，一度給印(yin)度的(de)金融(rong)交(jiao)易帶來障礙。

第一次事故發生后，印度(du)(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)部(bu)門(men)排除故障，在(zai)停(ting)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)后15個(ge)(ge)小時(shi)內(nei)基本恢(hui)復了電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)應。但旁(pang)遮普邦(bang)、哈里亞(ya)納邦(bang)以及(ji)北(bei)方邦(bang)等幾個(ge)(ge)地區在(zai)供(gong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)恢(hui)復后繼續(xu)超負荷(he)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，導致(zhi)了第二次大面積停(ting)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。印度(du)(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)部(bu)門(men)因此不得不從鄰(lin)國輸入電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)來滿足新德里的用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)需求。截至8月1日，印度(du)(du)北(bei)部(bu)地區95%的電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)應已恢(hui)復。

事故分析

貝恩咨詢(xun)公司(si)高級合(he)伙人阿密特·辛(xin)哈(ha)認為，此次停電(dian)事故給印(yin)度經濟敲響(xiang)了警鐘——印(yin)度電(dian)力供應至少需(xu)要(yao)保持每年(nian)6．5%至7%的(de)增速，否則將會(hui)對(dui)該國(guo)制造(zao)業和(he)出口(kou)企業造(zao)成傷害。

印(yin)(yin)度最大行業協會印(yin)(yin)度工商(shang)聯合會主(zhu)席卡諾里亞說：“連續兩(liang)天如此(ci)大規(gui)模的停(ting)電，值得我們(men)密切(qie)關注，這當然會

對于商(shang)業投資環境本就存(cun)在不少問題的印度(du)來(lai)說，此次大停電不僅影(ying)(ying)響企業生(sheng)產和(he)盈利水平，還影(ying)(ying)響到(dao)印度(du)在外國投資者眼(yan)中的形象。

印(yin)度(du)(du)產業(ye)聯合(he)會理事長(chang)錢德拉吉特·班納(na)吉表示，印(yin)度(du)(du)經濟(ji)近來(lai)增(zeng)長(chang)放緩，外(wai)(wai)界(jie)本就對(dui)印(yin)度(du)(du)前景不(bu)太看好，如今(jin)電網兩天內連(lian)續(xu)崩潰無(wu)疑使印(yin)度(du)(du)的(de)(de)形象進一步(bu)受(shou)損，令有(you)意投資印(yin)度(du)(du)的(de)(de)外(wai)(wai)國企業(ye)望而卻步(bu)。對(dui)于一個擁有(you)世界(jie)約六(liu)分之一人口的(de)(de)新興經濟(ji)體，有(you)必要使基(ji)礎設施建(jian)設與印(yin)度(du)(du)的(de)(de)強國夢想相匹配。

事故影響

世界媒(mei)體都(dou)在議論印度(du)大(da)停(ting)(ting)(ting)電(dian)(dian)，但任(ren)何國家都(dou)不能否認自己也遭遇(yu)過大(da)停(ting)(ting)(ting)電(dian)(dian)的歷史，只(zhi)是規(gui)模(mo)和破壞程度(du)不同罷(ba)了。美(mei)(mei)國上(shang)世紀后半葉，至(zhi)少(shao)出現三次(ci)大(da)規(gui)模(mo)停(ting)(ting)(ting)電(dian)(dian)事故，近十多年(nian)時間(jian)里，美(mei)(mei)國至(zhi)少(shao)遭遇(yu)過數次(ci)大(da)停(ting)(ting)(ting)電(dian)(dian)。如2008年(nian)，佛(fo)羅(luo)里達州(zhou)發生(sheng)大(da)停(ting)(ting)(ting)電(dian)(dian)，300萬(wan)人沒有電(dian)(dian)力供應；2003年(nian)大(da)停(ting)(ting)(ting)電(dian)(dian)，由密歇根州(zhou)延伸至(zhi)紐約，最后蔓延到(dao)加拿大(da)。危機(ji)專家承(cheng)認，“一次(ci)大(da)停(ting)(ting)(ting)電(dian)(dian)，即使是數秒鐘，也不亞于一場大(da)地震帶來的破壞”。

很(hen)多(duo)新興經(jing)濟體(ti)在(zai)經(jing)濟高增長的(de)刺激或尋求(qiu)經(jing)濟高增長的(de)動機之下，只顧電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力開發(fa)，卻忽視電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)安(an)全(quan)工(gong)作，對(dui)(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)管理(li)體(ti)制改革方(fang)面重視不夠，導致“缺電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)”和“有(you)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)”下都斷電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)停電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)情(qing)況，造成大量的(de)浪費和損失。印(yin)(yin)(yin)度此次發(fa)生(sheng)的(de)問(wen)題，對(dui)(dui)印(yin)(yin)(yin)度是(shi)個現(xian)實(shi)教訓，對(dui)(dui)世(shi)界各新興經(jing)濟體(ti)而言，是(shi)給電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)安(an)全(quan)上(shang)了一課。只要(yao)體(ti)認(ren)“大停電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)或也會發(fa)生(sheng)在(zai)我們(men)身上(shang)”，那么(me)，我們(men)就(jiu)應該(gai)從漠(mo)不關心等心態中覺(jue)醒(xing)過(guo)來，把印(yin)(yin)(yin)度問(wen)題視為自己的(de)問(wen)題，做好自己的(de)安(an)全(quan)工(gong)作。

2012年7月30口(kou)凌晨2時(shi)(shi)(shi)33分(fen)開始，印(yin)(yin)度(du)(du)北(bei)部地區(qu)(qu)德里邦(bang)、哈利亞納邦(bang)、中央邦(bang)、旁遮普(pu)邦(bang)、拉(la)賈斯坦邦(bang)、北(bei)安(an)查爾邦(bang)、北(bei)方邦(bang)等(deng)(deng)9個(ge)邦(bang)發(fa)(fa)生停電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)事(shi)(shi)故，逾3.7億人(ren)受(shou)到影響(xiang)(xiang)。在(zai)上述地區(qu)(qu)恢復供電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)數(shu)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)后(hou)，于當地時(shi)(shi)(shi)間7月31口(kou)13時(shi)(shi)(shi)05分(fen)開始，印(yin)(yin)度(du)(du)包括首都新(xin)德里在(zai)內(nei)(nei)(nei)的(de)(de)東(dong)部、北(bei)部和東(dong)北(bei)部地區(qu)(qu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)再(zai)次(ci)(ci)發(fa)(fa)生人(ren)面(mian)積(ji)停電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)事(shi)(shi)故，超過20個(ge)邦(bang)再(zai)次(ci)(ci)陷(xian)入電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)癱瘓狀態，全(quan)(quan)國近一半(ban)地區(qu)(qu)的(de)(de)供電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)出現中斷(duan)，逾6.7億人(ren)口(kou)受(shou)到影響(xiang)(xiang)111印(yin)(yin)度(du)(du)兩(liang)天之內(nei)(nei)(nei)連續發(fa)(fa)生人(ren)面(mian)積(ji)停電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)事(shi)(shi)故，是有史以(yi)來影響(xiang)(xiang)人(ren)曰(yue)最多(duo)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系(xi)統事(shi)(shi)故，成為(wei)世界范圍內(nei)(nei)(nei)規模最人(ren)的(de)(de)停電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)事(shi)(shi)件。印(yin)(yin)度(du)(du)長期以(yi)來電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)工業基(ji)礎薄弱、基(ji)礎設施落(luo)后(hou)并(bing)滯后(hou)于經(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)(fa)展等(deng)(deng)矛盾由來己久，這次(ci)(ci)事(shi)(shi)件讓印(yin)(yin)度(du)(du)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)管理體制、調度(du)(du)防控(kong)體系(xi)和電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)規劃(hua)建設等(deng)(deng)方面(mian)諸多(duo)問題再(zai)次(ci)(ci)暴(bao)露(lu)于公(gong)眾面(mian)前。與我(wo)國一樣(yang)作(zuo)為(wei)正(zheng)在(zai)崛起(qi)的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)展中國家，印(yin)(yin)度(du)(du)此(ci)次(ci)(ci)人(ren)停電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)事(shi)(shi)故對(dui)我(wo)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)安(an)全(quan)(quan)運行具有重人(ren)的(de)(de)借(jie)鑒意義。但是我(wo)國對(dui)人(ren)停電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)事(shi)(shi)故原因研(yan)究(jiu)不深(shen)(shen)，需要(yao)進一步深(shen)(shen)入分(fen)析印(yin)(yin)度(du)(du)人(ren)停電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)印(yin)(yin)度(du)(du)的(de)(de)能(neng)源電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)概況。

印(yin)度(du)的能源(yuan)資源(yuan)主(zhu)要(yao)分(fen)布在東(dong)部(bu)和東(dong)北部(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)_以(yi)煤炭(tan)和水力為主(zhu)_其(qi)(qi)余為核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)、油電(dian)(dian)(dian)和天(tian)然氣發電(dian)(dian)(dian)。主(zhu)要(yao)負(fu)荷中(zhong)心及人口稠(chou)密(mi)地(di)(di)區(qu)則集中(zhong)在北部(bu)、南部(bu)和西部(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)。印(yin)度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網的輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)方向主(zhu)要(yao)為東(dong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)西送(song)(song)，再輔(fu)以(yi)北電(dian)(dian)(dian)南送(song)(song)截至(zhi)2012年5月(yue)，印(yin)度(du)總發電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)容量約為2億kW，其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)占68.7070，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)占19.2070，核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)和其(qi)(qi)他可再生(sheng)能源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)占12.1%}Z

作為(wei)亞洲第三(san)人經(jing)濟體(ti)，印(yin)(yin)度過(guo)去(qu)10年(nian)(nian)間經(jing)濟增(zeng)(zeng)速接近2位數，能源消費年(nian)(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)速6%但由于投資不足(zu)，電(dian)力工(gong)業發(fa)展(zhan)嚴重滯后于經(jing)濟發(fa)展(zhan)水平，發(fa)電(dian)冗余不足(zu)，跨區(qu)輸(shu)電(dian)能力不夠，電(dian)力供應長(chang)(chang)期(qi)處于短缺(que)狀態。印(yin)(yin)度2010-2011年(nian)(nian)度GDP增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)8.5070，同期(qi)發(fa)電(dian)裝機增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)僅為(wei)5.56%印(yin)(yin)度電(dian)力部預(yu)計2012年(nian)(nian)印(yin)(yin)度高峰期(qi)電(dian)力缺(que)曰(yue)10.6%左右，全年(nian)(nian)電(dian)量缺(que)曰(yue)7.3%左右。仍有近40%的印(yin)(yin)度家(jia)庭(約2.89億人)沒有用上電(dian)，且印(yin)(yin)度人部分地區(qu)供電(dian)質量低(di)、停電(dian)頻繁，即使在首都(dou)新德里也(ye)經(jing)常(chang)拉閘(zha)限(xian)電(dian)。

印(yin)度(du)(du)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)由五人(ren)區域性電(dian)(dian)網(wang)組成，即北(bei)部(bu)、東(dong)(dong)部(bu)、西(xi)部(bu)、東(dong)(dong)北(bei)部(bu)和南部(bu)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)。印(yin)度(du)(du)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)的電(dian)(dian)壓等級(ji)主要(yao)有765kV,500 kV，400kV，220kV和132kV北(bei)部(bu)、東(dong)(dong)部(bu)、西(xi)部(bu)、東(dong)(dong)北(bei)部(bu)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)實現了交流400kV同步聯網(wang)，形成中(zhong)央(yang)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(New Grid)。南部(bu)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)與(yu)中(zhong)央(yang)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)通(tong)過(guo)直(zhi)流異步聯接。此外印(yin)度(du)(du)東(dong)(dong)部(bu)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)通(tong)過(guo)400kV交流與(yu)不月(yue)-電(dian)(dian)網(wang)互聯印(yin)度(du)(du)交流同步電(dian)(dian)網(wang)區域間互聯情況.

印度輸電網結構分為3層，即國家電網(跨區域(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)卜區域(yu)內(nei)(nei)跨(kua)邦(bang)(bang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)一邦(bang)(bang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)。其中跨(kua)區和跨(kua)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)由(you)中央(yang)政府所有(you)的(de)印(yin)度國家電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)公(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(PGCIL)擁有(you)，并負(fu)責運行(xing)管(guan)理;邦(bang)(bang)內(nei)(nei)輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)資產(chan)由(you)邦(bang)(bang)政府所有(you)的(de)邦(bang)(bang)輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)公(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(STUB)或(huo)邦(bang)(bang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力局(未改革邦(bang)(bang))管(guan)理從(cong)印(yin)度交(jiao)流(liu)(liu)(liu)互(hu)聯網(wang)(wang)(wang)跨(kua)區主網(wang)(wang)(wang)架來(lai)看，區域(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)之間通(tong)過1同765kV交(jiao)流(liu)(liu)(liu)，23同400kV交(jiao)流(liu)(liu)(liu)、10同220kV交(jiao)流(liu)(liu)(liu)、1個(ge)(ge)(ge)士(shi)(shi)400kV直流(liu)(liu)(liu)背靠(kao)背和1個(ge)(ge)(ge)士(shi)(shi)500kV直流(liu)(liu)(liu)互(hu)聯。區域(yu)內(nei)(nei)主網(wang)(wang)(wang)架主要(yao)是(shi)以(yi)400kV/220kV電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)磁環網(wang)(wang)(wang)為主。印(yin)度配電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)由(you)邦(bang)(bang)政府所有(you)或(huo)私有(you)的(de)配電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)公(gong)司(si)(si)(si)擁有(you)并負(fu)責運行(xing)管(guan)理一個(ge)(ge)(ge)邦(bang)(bang)內(nei)(nei)有(you)多個(ge)(ge)(ge)配電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)公(gong)司(si)(si)(si)，完全私營的(de)配電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)公(gong)司(si)(si)(si)有(you)17個(ge)(ge)(ge)，主要(yao)分布在德里(li)、奧(ao)里(li)薩、占吉拉特、孟買等邦(bang)(bang)

在調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)度(du)環節，印(yin)度(du)電(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)度(du)分3級，分別由(you)國(guo)家(jia)調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)度(du)中心(xin)(NLDC)，區(qu)域(yu)調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)度(du)中心(xin)}RLDC)、邦(bang)調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)度(du)中心(xin)(CBLDC)負責。其中NLDC負責跨(kua)區(qu)域(yu)輸電(dian)(dian)線路(lu)調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)度(du)，5個RLDC負責區(qu)域(yu)內(nei)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)度(du)，各邦(bang)SLDC負責邦(bang)內(nei)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)度(du)。調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)度(du)機構與電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)所(suo)有者(zhe)合一，NLDC和RLDC由(you)印(yin)度(du)國(guo)家(jia)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)公司管(guan)理，SLDC由(you)邦(bang)輸電(dian)(dian)公司或電(dian)(dian)力(li)局管(guan)理。

2印度“7.30"，"7.31”大停電事故直接原因

印度(du)電力部在(zai)事故(gu)后組成特別小組展開(kai)全(quan)面的(de)事故(gu)調查，并于s月I6口公布了事故(gu)調查報(bao)告，報(bao)告詳細(xi)地分析了引起印度(du)連續兩起人停電事故(gu)的(de)直接原因。

2012年7月(yue)30口，由于(yu)Bina-Gwalior 400kV線(xian)路跳(tiao)開，在北(bei)部(bu)電網(wang)(wang)和西部(bu)電網(wang)(wang)解(jie)列(lie)后，由西部(bu)電網(wang)(wang)供(gong)給(gei)北(bei)部(bu)電網(wang)(wang)負荷(he)的潮流(liu)轉移到“西部(bu)電網(wang)(wang)一東部(bu)電網(wang)(wang)一北(bei)部(bu)電網(wang)(wang)”的聯(lian)絡(luo)(luo)通道(dao)，導(dao)致系統(tong)發生功率振(zhen)(zhen)蕩由于(yu)振(zhen)(zhen)蕩中(zhong)心在北(bei)部(bu)電網(wang)(wang)和東部(bu)電網(wang)(wang)間的斷(duan)面上，致使相應的聯(lian)絡(luo)(luo)線(xian)跳(tiao)開，造(zao)成北(bei)部(bu)電網(wang)(wang)和印度交流(liu)互聯(lian)系統(tong)其(qi)他(ta)部(bu)分解(jie)列(lie)。由于(yu)系統(tong)頻率過低(di)以及區(qu)域(yu)內進一步的功率振(zhen)(zhen)蕩，北(bei)部(bu)電力系統(tong)最終崩潰。

2012年7月31口，由于(yu)Bina-Gwalior 400kV線(xian)(xian)路跳開，在(zai)北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)和西(xi)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)解列(lie)以(yi)后(hou)，用(yong)于(yu)滿足北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)區(qu)域負荷的(de)(de)(de)潮流(liu)轉移到“西(xi)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)一(yi)東(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)一(yi)北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)”的(de)(de)(de)聯(lian)絡通道，導致系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)發生功(gong)率振(zhen)蕩(dang)7月31口的(de)(de)(de)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)振(zhen)蕩(dang)中(zhong)心在(zai)東(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)內(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)，靠(kao)近東(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)和西(xi)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)斷(duan)面，因此，在(zai)導致了(le)(le)東(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)內(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)相應線(xian)(xian)路跳開之后(hou)，東(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)一(yi)小部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)(Ranchi和Rourkela)，以(yi)及西(xi)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)區(qu)域電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)和印(yin)度交流(liu)互聯(lian)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)其他部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)解列(lie)。這造成了(le)(le)北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)和東(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)間斷(duan)面的(de)(de)(de)功(gong)率振(zhen)蕩(dang)，并進(jin)一(yi)步(bu)導致了(le)(le)北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)區(qu)域電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)和“東(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)+東(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)”系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)解列(lie)。隨后(hou)，所有(you)3個區(qu)域電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、東(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、東(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu))由于(yu)區(qu)域內(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)功(gong)率振(zhen)蕩(dang)造成多(duo)同(tong)線(xian)(xian)路跳開，系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)頻率過(guo)低以(yi)及在(zai)不同(tong)地(di)區(qu)的(de)(de)(de)過(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓，最終(zhong)北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、東(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、東(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)崩潰。

根(gen)據印度的調查報(bao)告，2次事(shi)(shi)故當(dang)天的故障錄波器結果均顯(xian)(xian)示，系統(tong)中并沒有(you)監測到有(you)故障發(fa)生(sheng)。在2次事(shi)(shi)故發(fa)生(sheng)前，由于(yu)西(xi)部(bu)電(dian)網(wang)(wang)和北(bei)部(bu)電(dian)網(wang)(wang)斷(duan)面，以及靠近東部(bu)電(dian)網(wang)(wang)和西(xi)部(bu)電(dian)網(wang)(wang)斷(duan)面的多條區域間(jian)聯絡(luo)(luo)線停運(yun)導致跨區通道弱(ruo)聯系，系統(tong)間(jian)的輸電(dian)能力被顯(xian)(xian)著削弱(ruo)。西(xi)部(bu)電(dian)網(wang)(wang)和北(bei)部(bu)電(dian)網(wang)(wang)斷(duan)面均只有(you)Bina-Agra 400kV(單(dan)同)一(yi)條交流主干聯絡(luo)(luo)線路(lu)處于(yu)運(yun)行狀(zhuang)態。

電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)內(nei)的(de)(de)邦負荷(he)(he)調度(du)中心對(dui)區(qu)域負荷(he)(he)調度(du)中心要求(qiu)其(qi)降低邦內(nei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力公(gong)司(si)透支用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)，以及要求(qiu)西部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)內(nei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力公(gong)司(si)降低發電(dian)(dian)(dian)出力的(de)(de)指令響(xiang)應(ying)不充分(fen)部(bu)分(fen)北(bei)部(bu)區(qu)域電(dian)(dian)(dian)力公(gong)司(si)透支用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)，產生了計(ji)劃外(wai)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力交換，導致了西部(bu)與北(bei)部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)間唯一保(bao)(bao)持運行的(de)(de)400kV聯絡線處(chu)于高載荷(he)(he)狀態，并(bing)超過了線路(lu)白身的(de)(de)額定(ding)功率。距離(li)保(bao)(bao)護繼電(dian)(dian)(dian)器(qi)3段保(bao)(bao)護動作使(shi)得(de)該(gai)線路(lu)跳開(kai)，導致北(bei)部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)和(he)西部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)解列(lie)。

在北部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網和(he)西(xi)部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網解列后(hou)，由西(xi)部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網供給(gei)北部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網負荷的(de)(de)潮流轉移到“西(xi)部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網一(yi)東(dong)部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網一(yi)北部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網”的(de)(de)聯(lian)絡(luo)(luo)通道，導(dao)致系統(tong)(tong)發生(sheng)振蕩(dang)在2次連續人(ren)面積停(ting)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)事故中，振蕩(dang)中心分(fen)別在北部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網和(he)東(dong)部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網間的(de)(de)斷面上，及在靠(kao)近東(dong)部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網和(he)西(xi)部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網斷面的(de)(de)東(dong)部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網內部(bu)，致使相應的(de)(de)聯(lian)絡(luo)(luo)線和(he)主干線路跳開，北部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網和(he)印度交流互聯(lian)系統(tong)(tong)其他部(bu)分(fen)解列。由于各(ge)個區域內系統(tong)(tong)頻率(lv)(lv)過低以(yi)及進一(yi)步的(de)(de)功率(lv)(lv)振蕩(dang)等原因導(dao)致電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)(tong)崩潰，最終造成人(ren)面積停(ting)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)事故

在這(zhe)2次人(ren)面(mian)積(ji)停(ting)電(dian)(dian)(dian)事(shi)故(gu)(gu)中(zhong)，西部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統通過在區域(yu)內采取高(gao)頻切機(ji)措(cuo)施，得(de)以(yi)幸免(mian)(mian)南部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統從(cong)東部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)和西部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)饋(kui)入(ru)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力，也在7月31口的事(shi)故(gu)(gu)中(zhong)得(de)以(yi)幸免(mian)(mian)，在事(shi)故(gu)(gu)發(fa)生后(hou)依然從(cong)西部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)饋(kui)入(ru)部(bu)分電(dian)(dian)(dian)力，并采取了若干防御(yu)機(ji)制，如白動低頻減(jian)負(fu)荷以(yi)及(ji)逐漸提升高(gao)壓直流受電(dian)(dian)(dian)功(gong)率

印度大停電事故的深層次原因分析

人電(dian)網(wang)統(tong)一防(fang)控體(ti)系是(shi)(shi)以(yi)堅(jian)強網(wang)架為基礎的(de)(de)、基于(yu)人安全觀的(de)(de)、以(yi)統(tong)一規劃、統(tong)一調度(du)、統(tong)一管理為手段的(de)(de)人電(dian)網(wang)安全防(fang)御與運行(營)控制(zhi)體(ti)系。該體(ti)系的(de)(de)不完(wan)善是(shi)(shi)木次印度(du)連(lian)續發生人面積停電(dian)事故的(de)(de)深(shen)層次原因

1網架結構不夠堅強，區域間交換能力不足

受印度電(dian)(dian)力工業的(de)(de)經營與管(guan)理(li)體制(zhi)限(xian)制(zhi)，各級電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)建設缺乏區域間統(tong)籌協調(diao)，區域主(zhu)網(wang)(wang)(wang)架(jia)以400kV/220kV電(dian)(dian)磁環(huan)網(wang)(wang)(wang)為主(zhu)，沒有(you)合理(li)的(de)(de)分(fen)(fen)層(ceng)分(fen)(fen)區，網(wang)(wang)(wang)架(jia)結構較易引(yin)發(fa)(fa)穩定(ding)破(po)壞。400kV線路作為主(zhu)干網(wang)(wang)(wang)架(jia)己不(bu)滿足印度經濟的(de)(de)快速增(zeng)長對電(dian)(dian)力負荷的(de)(de)需要，765kV系統(tong)剛(gang)剛(gang)啟動建設，還(huan)未成網(wang)(wang)(wang)。跨區主(zhu)網(wang)(wang)(wang)架(jia)之間呈弱連(lian)接，一旦(dan)局部故障引(yin)發(fa)(fa)連(lian)鎖反(fan)應，或者區域電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)白身發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)能(neng)力人幅減少，各區域間彼此難以形(xing)成有(you)力的(de)(de)支(zhi)援，加入(ru)了(le)發(fa)(fa)生人面(mian)積停電(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)可能(neng)性。

2電網發展缺乏統一規劃

印(yin)(yin)度(du)(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)規(gui)劃(hua)、建設(she)主(zhu)體和(he)資產歸屬復(fu)雜，主(zhu)要包括印(yin)(yin)度(du)(du)國(guo)家電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)、邦(bang)(bang)(bang)屬電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)以及私人企業印(yin)(yin)度(du)(du)國(guo)家電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)負責(ze)區(qu)域(yu)(yu)及跨(kua)區(qu)域(yu)(yu)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)線(xian)(xian)路的(de)(de)(de)(de)規(gui)劃(hua)，邦(bang)(bang)(bang)屬電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)負責(ze)邦(bang)(bang)(bang)內(nei)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)絡的(de)(de)(de)(de)規(gui)劃(hua)。盡管由隸屬于印(yin)(yin)度(du)(du)國(guo)家電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)的(de)(de)(de)(de)5個區(qu)域(yu)(yu)級電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)調(diao)度(du)(du)中(zhong)心負責(ze)協調(diao)和(he)管理有關邦(bang)(bang)(bang)之間輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)線(xian)(xian)路的(de)(de)(de)(de)相(xiang)關事務，但其(qi)對邦(bang)(bang)(bang)內(nei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)并無管理關系，無力(li)有效實現跨(kua)區(qu)、跨(kua)邦(bang)(bang)(bang)和(he)邦(bang)(bang)(bang)內(nei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)統(tong)一規(gui)劃(hua)，各(ge)區(qu)域(yu)(yu)間電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發展規(gui)劃(hua)較難形成(cheng)合理的(de)(de)(de)(de)匹配和(he)有效的(de)(de)(de)(de)銜接。除(chu)上述所述的(de)(de)(de)(de)長期電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)規(gui)劃(hua)問題(ti)外，印(yin)(yin)度(du)(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)還存在短期運行規(gui)劃(hua)中(zhong)，區(qu)域(yu)(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)、邦(bang)(bang)(bang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)線(xian)(xian)路停運計劃(hua)不協調(diao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)嚴重(zhong)問題(ti)，并因此直接造(zao)成(cheng)了區(qu)域(yu)(yu)間聯絡線(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)功率調(diao)控(kong)能力(li)缺失。

3電網缺乏統一調度機制

除了固有的發電冗余不(bu)足，調(diao)(diao)峰(feng)能力弱等(deng)客觀原(yuan)因外(wai)，此次事(shi)故暴露出印(yin)度(du)(du)電網調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)體制不(bu)健全(quan)，電網運行(xing)缺乏統一調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)，不(bu)同級調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)機構約(yue)束能力弱、跨邦跨區調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)協調(diao)(diao)能力不(bu)足，調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)指揮不(bu)暢，調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)指令失靈等(deng)問(wen)題。

印度(du)(du)(du)(du)實行(xing)(xing)分散的調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)(du)(du)體制，存(cun)在國(guo)家、區域、邦(bang)(bang)級以(yi)及邦(bang)(bang)內(nei)各地區4級以(yi)上的調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)(du)(du)管理_缺乏統(tong)一(yi)調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)(du)(du)機(ji)制。各邦(bang)(bang)調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)(du)(du)機(ji)構獨立于國(guo)家和區域調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)(du)(du)機(ji)構，主要受當(dang)地電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)局或(huo)輸電(dian)(dian)公司管理。國(guo)家調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)(du)(du)機(ji)構對邦(bang)(bang)調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)(du)(du)機(ji)構的約束能力(li)(li)較(jiao)弱，白(bai)上而卜的調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)(du)(du)和管理的無(wu)法做到“一(yi)票到底”。當(dang)區域電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)(du)(du)與邦(bang)(bang)級電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)(du)(du)發(fa)生矛盾(dun)時，需(xu)向電(dian)(dian)監(jian)會(hui)反應并(bing)由(you)電(dian)(dian)監(jian)會(hui)負(fu)責協(xie)調(diao)(diao)解決。事故中(zhong)北部各邦(bang)(bang)不(bu)服從區域電(dian)(dian)網調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)(du)(du)，使電(dian)(dian)網設備持(chi)續維持(chi)超負(fu)荷(he)運(yun)(yun)(yun)行(xing)(xing)，區域電(dian)(dian)網調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)(du)(du)指令對各邦(bang)(bang)超計劃受電(dian)(dian)無(wu)能為(wei)力(li)(li)。印度(du)(du)(du)(du)多位電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)官員表(biao)示，各州沒有(you)按照規定調(diao)(diao)整負(fu)荷(he)需(xu)求(qiu)，致(zhi)使跨(kua)邦(bang)(bang)聯絡線超負(fu)荷(he)運(yun)(yun)(yun)行(xing)(xing)，導致(zhi)了系統(tong)崩潰此(ci)外，印度(du)(du)(du)(du)電(dian)(dian)網運(yun)(yun)(yun)行(xing)(xing)標準偏低，調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)(du)(du)裕度(du)(du)(du)(du)不(bu)足印度(du)(du)(du)(du)電(dian)(dian)網運(yun)(yun)(yun)營模式允許用頻(pin)(pin)率換用電(dian)(dian)量的行(xing)(xing)為(wei)，系統(tong)運(yun)(yun)(yun)行(xing)(xing)經常出現背離計劃的情況(kuang)，而且輸電(dian)(dian)頻(pin)(pin)率的正常運(yun)(yun)(yun)行(xing)(xing)范圍(wei)值為(wei)48.5--50.2Hz，允許頻(pin)(pin)率偏差較(jiao)人，這些造成電(dian)(dian)網運(yun)(yun)(yun)行(xing)(xing)長期處于緊張(zhang)狀態。

4電力管理體制分散，缺乏統一管理

印度電(dian)(dian)力(li)管理(li)體(ti)制(zhi)缺乏(fa)集約化(hua)，各(ge)邦(bang)政府對電(dian)(dian)力(li)改革擁(yong)有較高白主權(quan)，使得各(ge)邦(bang)改革進程不盡相同，統(tong)籌協調發(fa)展(zhan)實現(xian)困難(nan)。發(fa)、輸、配電(dian)(dian)所有權(quan)和經營(ying)權(quan)分(fen)散，利益(yi)(yi)主體(ti)多(duo)元，電(dian)(dian)網(wang)發(fa)展(zhan)長期各(ge)白為(wei)政，注重局部(bu)利益(yi)(yi)，不重視整體(ti)安(an)全，電(dian)(dian)網(wang)管理(li)水(shui)平偏低(di)、線損高、人部(bu)分(fen)電(dian)(dian)力(li)企業處于虧(kui)損狀態、投資能力(li)弱。

一方(fang)面(mian)，由于印(yin)度(du)推(tui)行(xing)以私有化為方(fang)向(xiang)的電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)改(gai)革(ge)，輸配電(dian)(dian)(dian)網在(zai)體(ti)(ti)制(zhi)上并(bing)非一體(ti)(ti)化運行(xing);另一方(fang)面(mian)，印(yin)度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網管(guan)理(li)體(ti)(ti)制(zhi)為中央(yang)和邦(bang)(bang)(bang)2個層次(ci)的分散(san)管(guan)理(li)模式(shi)(shi)，各邦(bang)(bang)(bang)政府對電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)改(gai)革(ge)擁有較(jiao)高(gao)白主(zhu)權邦(bang)(bang)(bang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)監會(hui)不受(shou)中央(yang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)監會(hui)管(guan)理(li)，邦(bang)(bang)(bang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)監會(hui)在(zai)邦(bang)(bang)(bang)內發、輸、配、電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)交易和輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)定價等(deng)方(fang)面(mian)有較(jiao)高(gao)的白主(zhu)權這種(zhong)整(zheng)體(ti)(ti)層面(mian)比較(jiao)分散(san)的管(guan)理(li)體(ti)(ti)制(zhi)與模式(shi)(shi)，在(zai)很人(ren)程(cheng)度(du)上造成(cheng)了印(yin)度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)發展很難(nan)形成(cheng)統(tong)一、科(ke)學的規劃。加(jia)入了印(yin)度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網建設與運行(xing)難(nan)度(du)，也影響了印(yin)度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)企業運營與積極性(xing)，導致印(yin)度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)在(zai)整(zheng)體(ti)(ti)上統(tong)籌協調發展實現困(kun)難(nan)。

5電網系統保護與設備運行的功能不健全

印度(du)(du)配(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)保(bao)護體系(xi)中的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“第(di)二(er)道防線”不健全(quan)，基(ji)于(yu)頻(pin)(pin)(pin)率(lv)變(bian)化(hua)率(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)減(jian)載(zai)(zai)(zai)措(cuo)施和(he)(he)低(di)頻(pin)(pin)(pin)減(jian)載(zai)(zai)(zai)措(cuo)施實(shi)施不力。在“7.30”第(di)一次(ci)北(bei)(bei)部電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)崩(beng)潰(kui)前，北(bei)(bei)部電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)與其(qi)他電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)解(jie)列運(yun)行(xing)。北(bei)(bei)部電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)損(sun)失(shi)約5800MW外來電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，導(dao)(dao)致頻(pin)(pin)(pin)率(lv)降低(di)。為了改善頻(pin)(pin)(pin)率(lv)，避免系(xi)統(tong)崩(beng)潰(kui)，北(bei)(bei)部電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)實(shi)施了低(di)頻(pin)(pin)(pin)減(jian)載(zai)(zai)(zai)計(ji)劃(可以(yi)減(jian)少(shao)約4000MW的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)負荷(he))和(he)(he)基(ji)于(yu)頻(pin)(pin)(pin)率(lv)變(bian)化(hua)率(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)減(jian)載(zai)(zai)(zai)計(ji)劃(可減(jian)少(shao)約6000MW的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)負荷(he))。然(ran)而，2項(xiang)計(ji)劃的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)實(shi)施并(bing)未(wei)減(jian)少(shao)足夠的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)負荷(he)，導(dao)(dao)致除了Badax-p二(er)和(he)(he)NAPS幾個小區(qu)域外的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)北(bei)(bei)部電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)崩(beng)潰(kui)在“7.31”第(di)二(er)次(ci)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)崩(beng)潰(kui)前，北(bei)(bei)部電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)與其(qi)他電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)首(shou)先解(jie)列運(yun)行(xing)，并(bing)遭(zao)遇了與第(di)一次(ci)停電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)事故類似的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“第(di)二(er)道防線”失(shi)效的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情(qing)況在緊急情(qing)況卜(bu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)低(di)頻(pin)(pin)(pin)減(jian)載(zai)(zai)(zai)和(he)(he)基(ji)于(yu)頻(pin)(pin)(pin)率(lv)變(bian)化(hua)率(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)減(jian)載(zai)(zai)(zai)保(bao)護策略木應能維持頻(pin)(pin)(pin)率(lv)來保(bao)證系(xi)統(tong)安全(quan)運(yun)行(xing)，但印度(du)(du)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)事故分析報(bao)告指出，7月31口并(bing)沒有監測到低(di)頻(pin)(pin)(pin)減(jian)載(zai)(zai)(zai)和(he)(he)基(ji)于(yu)頻(pin)(pin)(pin)率(lv)變(bian)化(hua)率(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)減(jian)載(zai)(zai)(zai)保(bao)護計(ji)劃有適當的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)動作。

印度電(dian)(dian)(dian)網的(de)(de)各級調(diao)度中(zhong)心缺乏電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)動態安全(quan)評估(gu)和快(kuai)速(su)狀態估(gu)計的(de)(de)研究機制(zhi)(zhi)，無法有(you)效制(zhi)(zhi)定補(bu)救措施計劃(hua);在(zai)系(xi)統(tong)運行(xing)調(diao)度過程中(zhong)一(yi)也沒有(you)在(zai)計劃(hua)外電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)交換情況(kuang)卜(bu)，對功率透(tou)支(zhi)與過度發電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)情況(kuang)進行(xing)監(jian)管。在(zai)這2次停電(dian)(dian)(dian)事故中(zhong)，均發生了在(zai)負荷逐漸損失的(de)(de)情況(kuang)卜(bu)距離保護(hu)誤動現象，而(er)且缺乏足夠的(de)(de)無功補(bu)償(chang)裝置(zhi)和動態補(bu)償(chang)裝置(zhi)對故障中(zhong)的(de)(de)系(xi)統(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)壓提供支(zhi)撐。

6電力投資不足

電(dian)(dian)力(li)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)不(bu)(bu)足一(yi)直是印度電(dian)(dian)力(li)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)發展(zhan)的(de)(de)核心(xin)制約因素(su)，印度曾試圖采取多項措施吸引電(dian)(dian)力(li)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)，但(dan)收(shou)效甚微2003年(nian)印度電(dian)(dian)力(li)法案(an)明(ming)確鼓勵引入競爭。2005年(nian)印度國家電(dian)(dian)力(li)發展(zhan)政(zheng)策也提出要在輸電(dian)(dian)環節引入私人(ren)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)。但(dan)在實際(ji)操作中，并未建(jian)立完善的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)力(li)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)體制和(he)順暢的(de)(de)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金渠道(dao)，往(wang)往(wang)由于土地(di)糾(jiu)紛(fen)和(he)其(qi)他繁瑣的(de)(de)政(zheng)策障(zhang)礙(ai)，導致(zhi)基礎(chu)設(she)施建(jian)設(she)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金無法到位。另(ling)一(yi)方面(mian)，電(dian)(dian)價(jia)水(shui)平等(deng)諸(zhu)多因素(su)也導致(zhi)電(dian)(dian)力(li)行業(ye)(ye)難以(yi)吸引投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)。印度電(dian)(dian)價(jia)機制不(bu)(bu)順，存(cun)在電(dian)(dian)價(jia)同(tong)收(shou)難、線(xian)損(sun)居高不(bu)(bu)卜等(deng)問題，印度電(dian)(dian)力(li)企業(ye)(ye)普(pu)遍虧(kui)損(sun)，政(zheng)府補貼對電(dian)(dian)力(li)市(shi)場運營(ying)虧(kui)損(sun)來說也是“杯(bei)水(shui)車薪(xin)”，企業(ye)(ye)缺(que)乏白(bai)主(zhu)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)能(neng)力(li)和(he)積(ji)極性(xing)

印度大停電對我國電力發展的啟示

印(yin)度2天內連續2次發生(sheng)人面積停電事(shi)故，給(gei)當地經濟發展、社(she)會穩定及(ji)國家形象帶來嚴重(zhong)(zhong)影響。此次印(yin)度人停電事(shi)件對我國電力工(gong)業發展具有重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)啟示。

電力要適度超前發展并把安全放在首位

電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力是現代經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)社會發展的(de)(de)基礎(chu)，也是組(zu)成國(guo)民經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)的(de)(de)重要組(zu)成部分。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力行業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)基礎(chu)性(xing)特征、工(gong)程建(jian)設(she)周期長(chang)、系統運行備用需求(qiu)等要求(qiu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力發展必須適度(du)(du)超(chao)前(qian)如果電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力發展滯后，就(jiu)會成為制約經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)社會發展和(he)人民生活水平提高的(de)(de)瓶(ping)頸。印度(du)(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)基礎(chu)設(she)施(shi)薄弱，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力供(gong)需矛(mao)盾突出，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網安(an)全(quan)可靠(kao)供(gong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)水平低。近年來(lai)，印度(du)(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力持續存在10%左右的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力缺}!，而在夏季用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)高峰(feng)這(zhe)個比例可能超(chao)過20%如此滯后的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)，不僅嚴重影(ying)響了(le)水民的(de)(de)生活，更(geng)讓印度(du)(du)在對外(wai)招(zhao)商引資、經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)發展方面都面臨(lin)多方垢病，國(guo)際競爭力也因此人打(da)折扣。

加強電網統籌規劃，夯實電網安全的基礎

無論美加(jia)“8.14”人停電(dian)(dian)、巴西“11.10”人停電(dian)(dian)，還是(shi)木(mu)次(ci)印度連續2次(ci)人停電(dian)(dian)，其中(zhong)一個重(zhong)要(yao)原(yuan)因就是(shi)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)發(fa)展(zhan)滯后，沒(mei)有形成結構堅(jian)強(qiang)(qiang)(qiang)、運(yun)行靈(ling)活的(de)主網(wang)架。電(dian)(dian)力系統是(shi)由不(bu)同電(dian)(dian)壓(ya)等級(ji)設(she)(she)備(bei)緊(jin)密(mi)連接在一起的(de)系統，必(bi)須堅(jian)持統一規(gui)劃、統一建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)，從源頭上消(xiao)除隱患，提高電(dian)(dian)網(wang)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)安全(quan)質(zhi)量和(he)抵御白(bai)然災(zai)害(hai)的(de)能(neng)力，滿足能(neng)源資源配置(zhi)要(yao)求和(he)事(shi)故(gu)情況(kuang)卜(bu)相互支援的(de)能(neng)力。立足我國(guo)能(neng)源逆向(xiang)分布實際，加(jia)快發(fa)展(zhan)特高壓(ya)跨(kua)區(qu)輸電(dian)(dian)，構建(jian)(jian)“強(qiang)(qiang)(qiang)交強(qiang)(qiang)(qiang)直”的(de)全(quan)國(guo)特高壓(ya)堅(jian)強(qiang)(qiang)(qiang)骨(gu)干網(wang)架，是(shi)保(bao)障我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)力供(gong)應安全(quan)的(de)必(bi)備(bei)物(wu)質(zhi)基礎。

堅持電力系統安全穩定“三道防線”

印度電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)公司縮減電(dian)(dian)(dian)網維(wei)護(hu)(hu)成木，在(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網超負荷運(yun)行(xing)、頻率(lv)卜(bu)降(jiang)時，技術上沒有相應的(de)“第三道防(fang)(fang)(fang)線(xian)”，最終(zhong)拖垮(kua)整個電(dian)(dian)(dian)網。而(er)在(zai)美國等(deng)一(yi)些國家(jia)也(ye)存在(zai)類(lei)似我國的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)安(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)穩(wen)定“三道防(fang)(fang)(fang)線(xian)”，但因(yin)制(zhi)(zhi)度體制(zhi)(zhi)等(deng)問題(ti)，讓(rang)“三道防(fang)(fang)(fang)線(xian)”運(yun)行(xing)失靈(ling)。隨著我國人(ren)容量交/直流輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)工(gong)程、人(ren)規模間歇式(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)的(de)投運(yun)，交直流系(xi)統拙合關系(xi)增強(qiang)，系(xi)統運(yun)行(xing)方(fang)式(shi)多變，容易發(fa)生(sheng)多重擾動/故障(zhang)，對人(ren)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網安(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)運(yun)行(xing)提(ti)出了更高(gao)的(de)要(yao)求需要(yao)進一(yi)步加強(qiang)“三道防(fang)(fang)(fang)線(xian)”建設，落實(shi)《電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統安(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)穩(wen)定導(dao)則(ze)》要(yao)求，深(shen)入開(kai)展系(xi)統安(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)穩(wen)定分析和校(xiao)核，健全(quan)(quan)(quan)安(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)管(guan)理制(zhi)(zhi)度，提(ti)高(gao)運(yun)行(xing)維(wei)護(hu)(hu)水平、人(ren)員素質，加強(qiang)安(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)基礎(chu)管(guan)理和細(xi)節控(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)，以(yi)“嚴(yan)、細(xi)、實(shi)”的(de)作風保障(zhang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網安(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)

加強對電網骨干網架安全保障理論的研究

各(ge)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)在(zai)向其(qi)目標網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)架發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展的(de)(de)過(guo)渡過(guo)程(cheng)中，都存(cun)在(zai)薄弱環(huan)節和(he)(he)安(an)(an)(an)全風(feng)險，忽視這(zhe)些(xie)環(huan)節和(he)(he)對(dui)相應(ying)風(feng)險的(de)(de)管控(kong)將加入電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生類(lei)似于印度(du)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)停電(dian)(dian)(dian)事故(gu)的(de)(de)可能性。為(wei)在(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展的(de)(de)過(guo)渡過(guo)程(cheng)中避免發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)面積停電(dian)(dian)(dian)事故(gu)，必(bi)須樹立立足于發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展的(de)(de)、科學的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)安(an)(an)(an)全觀(guan)，結合人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)及其(qi)安(an)(an)(an)全運行控(kong)制(zhi)的(de)(de)技術發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展趨勢，進一(yi)步加強(qiang)對(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)骨干網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)架安(an)(an)(an)全保障理(li)論的(de)(de)研(yan)究與技術措施(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)管理(li)，提高人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)監測、預警和(he)(he)控(kong)制(zhi)能力(li)(li)，構(gou)建時空協調綜合防(fang)御(yu)系(xi)(xi)統，提高技術保障電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)安(an)(an)(an)全的(de)(de)能力(li)(li)，保證(zheng)系(xi)(xi)統的(de)(de)長期(qi)安(an)(an)(an)全穩定(ding)運行。深化人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)安(an)(an)(an)全風(feng)險管理(li)，實現安(an)(an)(an)全風(feng)險的(de)(de)超前分析和(he)(he)流程(cheng)化控(kong)制(zhi);開展周期(qi)性輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)、城(cheng)市(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)安(an)(an)(an)全性評價，滾動(dong)排(pai)查電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)薄弱環(huan)節和(he)(he)設備重(zhong)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)隱患;加強(qiang)資產全壽(shou)命周期(qi)管理(li)和(he)(he)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)安(an)(an)(an)全監督管理(li);完善人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)應(ying)急處(chu)置(zhi)機制(zhi)等手段和(he)(he)措施(shi)(shi)全過(guo)程(cheng)動(dong)態(tai)防(fang)范電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)事故(gu)風(feng)險。

強化各級電網和調度的一體化運行機制

分析國際上(shang)這些(xie)人(ren)面積停(ting)(ting)電(dian)(dian)事(shi)故的(de)直(zhi)接原(yuan)(yuan)因，人(ren)都是因為管理體(ti)制混(hun)亂、利益(yi)主體(ti)多(duo)元、調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)指令失靈(ling)，電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)事(shi)故得(de)不到(dao)及時控制，最終發展成為人(ren)面積停(ting)(ting)電(dian)(dian)。這次印度(du)(du)人(ren)停(ting)(ting)電(dian)(dian)的(de)原(yuan)(yuan)因，再(zai)一(yi)(yi)(yi)次說(shuo)明(ming)缺乏統一(yi)(yi)(yi)的(de)調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)管理體(ti)制和(he)(he)嚴格的(de)調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)紀律(lv)，人(ren)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)安全無法得(de)到(dao)保(bao)障。長(chang)期以來，我(wo)國電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)實施電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)一(yi)(yi)(yi)體(ti)化運行(xing)機制，實現了統一(yi)(yi)(yi)高效的(de)調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)管理和(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)力系統協調(diao)(diao)運行(xing)，有(you)效降低了重人(ren)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)事(shi)故風險，沒有(you)發生(sheng)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)崩潰和(he)(he)人(ren)面積停(ting)(ting)電(dian)(dian)等重人(ren)及以上(shang)的(de)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)事(shi)故特別是近年來，在連續遭受歷史(shi)罕(han)見的(de)嚴重冰災、特人(ren)地震(zhen)及重人(ren)洪水(shui)、臺(tai)風、泥石(shi)流等白然災害的(de)情況卜，我(wo)國電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)調(diao)(diao)度(du)(du)管理體(ti)制為確保(bao)人(ren)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)的(de)安全和(he)(he)可靠供電(dian)(dian)發揮了重要作用

總結

當前我國經(jing)(jing)濟發展(zhan)和負荷需(xu)求增長較快，結(jie)構性和季節性電(dian)(dian)力(li)緊張時有發生(sheng)，新能源發電(dian)(dian)迅猛發展(zhan)、并(bing)網規模口(kou)益(yi)增人，電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)的(de)結(jie)構口(kou)趨復雜，未(wei)來供電(dian)(dian)安(an)(an)全穩定問題將更加突出。為此(ci)，我國應(ying)積極從印度(du)人停電(dian)(dian)事故中汲取(qu)經(jing)(jing)驗教訓。在人力(li)增強電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)安(an)(an)全的(de)物理(li)網絡(luo)支撐的(de)同時，要(yao)堅(jian)持各級電(dian)(dian)網和調(diao)度(du)的(de)一(yi)體化運(yun)行機制，充分(fen)發揮電(dian)(dian)網統(tong)一(yi)管理(li)和運(yun)行的(de)優勢(shi)，最人限度(du)地提升電(dian)(dian)網調(diao)度(du)安(an)(an)全保障能力(li)，為我國經(jing)(jing)濟社會(hui)快速發展(zhan)提供安(an)(an)全、可(ke)靠、優質、高效的(de)電(dian)(dian)力(li)供應(ying)。